Bleak outlook

The future isn't looking good for Iraq. Last week it was reported that the Iraqi Parliament approved a new law that will allow Shiites to form their own semi-autonomous region in the south, in the same way as the Kurds have had (with the Federal Region of Kurdistan) in the north since 1992. Sunnis boycotted the vote, as did some Shia parties who didn't like some of the measures in the law. There's a dispute as to whether the law was validly passed - 138 out of the 275 legislators need to be present for there to be a quorum. The headcount had to be repeated several times. The session was behind closed doors but some parliament staff spoke to the press on condition of anonymity. Those who were Shia said 140 voted, Sunnis said 133. So who knows?

Either way, this is the first step in the break up of Iraq into federal regions. The Sunnis would have the central part of Iraq. They're not happy with that idea as the oil is concentrated in the north and the south, so they'd be left with a raw deal. Although no changes are to be made, i.e. the merging of governorates in the south into one Shia Region, until 2008, don't be too surprised to see a massive upsurge in violence in the months ahead.

It's too late to get the security situation under control now. This place is one Grade A basket case. The media reported that the "leaked" draft Baker report last week suggesting that Iraq may be split into federal regions was directly at odds with what Bush would want to be said. Yeah right. This is the new policy and that's their way of testing public reaction. Whatever happens in between now and when the policy is announced is filler.

Iraqis are fleeing in their thousands. Well over 1 million have left already and the rate goes up every week. I wouldn't be too surprised to see Coalition forces out of here in 6-12 months. So I guess I will be out of here too, unless I can work in Kurdistan.

This is worth a look even if you don't think Cheney's a complete c***